Goedemorgen, AEX korte termijn, dag en uurgrafieken, een neutrale opening wordt voorzien.
AEX, ja..... nee....
(114 berichten) (4 stemmen)-
Geplaatst 11 januari 2012 08:51 link naar dit bericht
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Geplaatst 12 januari 2012 08:45 link naar dit bericht
Goedemorgen, AEX korte termijn, dag en uurgrafieken. Een neutrale opening voor de AEX wordt voorzien.
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Geplaatst 13 januari 2012 08:47 link naar dit bericht
Goedemorgen, AEX korte termijn, dag en uurgrafieken. Een neutraal tot hogere opening van de AEX kan worden verwacht. Van deze grafieken zijn regelmatig intraday update`s (zonder nadere kennisgeving).
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Geplaatst 24 januari 2012 15:17 link naar dit bericht
AEX korte termijn, dag en uurgrafieken: Voor de volgers van deze grafieken is de daling van vandaag niet onverwacht getuige de al enige tijd ingetekende negatieve divergentie in de Li. Indicator op uurbasis (GWTF- uurgrafiek). Jammer alleen dat de overnight situatie, de opening met de gap vanmorgen meteen voor lagere koersen zorgde, waardoor een mooie instap, met enige bevestiging van een daling intraday niet kon worden genomen. De ontstane gap welke gesloten zal zijn bij AEX ca.322,3 biedt evenwel nog die kansen, als de index tijdens het sluiten van de gap nog steeds shortsignalen blijft afgeven. Op dit moment van schrijven ziet het er echter nog niet naar uit dat de gap vandaag nog gesloten gaat worden.
1e doelen, horizontale steunen zien we bij 318,6. Als een dubbele bodem. Indien de steun niet zou houden is het volgende doel ca. 316, 9. als 38,2% retracement van de bodem v.a. AEX 306 en de huidige toppen bij 323,8.
In de uurgrafiek MFI zien we een fraaie backtest van de opgaande steun en weerstandslijn (a) en ook zien we hier dat bij hogere koersen deze door de MFI indicator niet werden ondersteund. We zien ook de pogingen van vandaag, ter hoogte van de huidige stand en bij ca. 318 ( de dubbele bodem uit de uurgrafiek GWTF) in de MFI indicator van beleggers die op dat niveau zijn ingestapt, of het voldoende zal zijn...? Volg de signalen, niet het idee....
Update AEX korte termijn, dag en uurgrafieken
Van deze grafieken zijn regelmatig intraday update`s (zonder nadere kennisgeving).
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Geplaatst 25 januari 2012 09:38 link naar dit bericht
Goedemorgen, AEX korte termijn, dag en uurgrafieken. De gap van gisteren is alweer gesloten.
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vgoossens
offlineLidGeplaatst 25 januari 2012 11:53 link naar dit berichtDecember Portfolio and Outlook, may day ! Markets are heading lower,
Dec Portfolio:
Increased with 3.2 % (Underperforming the AEX with -0.8%) 2011: -13.6% AEX -12.1%
Since inception Oct 2006 +65% (a 102% outperformance to the AEX -36%) or 12.4 % per
annum on a weighted average basis.
Cash: 34% of the portfolio. Note these above mentioned performances were made with an
average cash position of 28% (so average market exposure has been 72% since Oct 2006)
Winners: Eternel energy +50%, AND +40%, Rampart +33%, Bam +27%, Grange res +23%
Losers: Goldsource -47%, Nautilus -18%, Xemplar -18%, UNG etf -15%, Duluth metals -
13%
Exits: Grontmij (part) & Hathor (taken over)
Trades:
Hedging the portfolio with FTI’s result: 1.1% on the portfolioPortfolio
AEXInitial position taken in:
Increased position in:
Largest positions (in size):, 1.Probe mines, 2.Noront 3.Boskalis, 4.CFE, 5.Amerisur 6.Grange
resources 7.Redstar gold, 8.Kendrion 9.Rainy River, 10.Exact, Imtech, Nautilus, Fission
Energy, Victoria Gold, VMS Ventures, AMG, Octoplus, BAM, Great Basin Gold,
Rockhopper exploration, RPT, AND, UNG ETF, Brasil ETF, Fairstar, Regal Petroleum,
Duluth metals, Goldsource mines, Fancamp, Prodigy gold, Crescent point, Fairstar, Celtic
minerals, North American Gem
Good money was made on Grange res, Amerisur & Boskalis.
Lost money on Probe mines & Nautilus.
The month:
The threat of a hard landing in China subdued, it looks like a controlled soft landing. Air is
also eroding from the real estate bubble, giving investors confidence we won’t see a sharp
slowdown. Weaker European countries showed declining interest rates, inducing risk on
investing in stocks and commodities. The ECB saved the day by using a big bazooka to offer
basically limitless lending for 3 years at very attractive rates (1%) for the European banks. In
the meanwhile politicians are still arguing what are the best solutions to solve the European
debt problem without triggering a chain reaction and inducing a (hard) recession over the
whole world. A positive sign is emerging that it will not only be austerity and fines, but also
growth stimulation ideas in Europe. The big question is, is going Europe for the full Monty (ie
more integration, fiscally and politically etc) or will it remain in dead lock by just words no
action? Overall investors see it as promising, the glass is half full.
The US is seeing signs of life, macro numbers are improving. Inflation (food & energy
specially) is on its way down, giving room for (monetary) stimuli measures around the world.
The engine of Europe, Germany is doing ok, numbers are coming in slightly better than
estimates.
Things are not as bad, as a lot of pessimists have proclaimed over the last couple of months.
Risks:
Greece and other weak countries aren’t going to pay up, risking a deep recession and dragging
the world along with it if an adequate solution isn’t found
Resurrection of US debt problems
Upsides:
New plans for Quantative easing in Europe and USA (now inflation is under control)?
A real solution to stem the PIGS contagion, 1 Huge European Bond market(not likely at the
moment), substantial increase of EFSF?
Outlook:
We are getting close to another Top of Tops meeting between European politicians, will this
one be the real thing with real and detailed solutions? Regarding their track record, don’t
expect lot’s of fireworks. The situation is very likely to be dragged on again, disappointing
investors once again.
One way or another the Europeans are going to pay the bill for the Greek and maybe other
bills as well. Banks will take haircuts, but the ECB has to go to the barber as well, the Greek
simply can’t pay for the banquet they were having for the last 10 years or so. Contagion will
be the key word for the months to come. Bank recapitulations will also be the story of the day, Unicredit saw it’s share price plummet to 10 year low’s to 2.28 on share issues. More banks
will follow the coming months, asset sales will be at depressed prices. A rebound of bank
stocks happened on banks lobbying for relaxed Basel terms.
We are going to see recession or near recession numbers for European countries, inducing
further downgrades of numbers and company estimates. This will not be good for equity
markets. At the moment markets are in a top forming process and I expect markets to head
lower the coming month. Window dressing is nearly finished in the equity markets.
On a 5 to 10 year view we could see very sluggish growth for the developed countries (like
the 70’s) and a more moderate growth for developing nations. Commodities can play a good
hedge in this scenario. Social unrest in Europe is increasing, see the recent migration of
unemployed in Spain for instance, other weak countries will show the same the coming
months. Capital preservation remains the play in the markets. Growth, which growth? is out
for the moment.
Strategy; I have sold holdings recently and covered part of my portfolio with futures and
looking to hedge more.
Technical Analysis; Gann http://goedbeleggen.wordpress.com/gann-trader-technischeanalyse/
Last leg of top forming seems near, a close below the 1263 in the SPX (now 1309) will bring
markets lower, a bottom is expected in the beginning of March. Ask for a free report via this
email: vgoossens@ziggo.nl
Key points to follow: US & Piggs debt problems, Unemployment (&Consumers spending),
House prices & sales, Commercial real estate, Debt, ISM producers index, Health of the
banks & Real growth of companies sales & earnings. And of course QE or money expansion
in Europe.
I would be very helpful if you can send me your comments, Ideas and Investment proposals.
Stock picks are of course very welcome
Good luck,
Kind regards,
Victor Goossens
http://goedbeleggen.wordpress.com/ -
Geplaatst 25 januari 2012 14:05 link naar dit bericht
Dank vgoossens, aanvulling welke wel van toepassing zijn:
VS indices, Nasdaq, Dow Jones en S&P500: daggrafieken:
Update VS indices, daggrafieken
Ook van deze grafieken zijn regelmatig intraday update`s (zonder nadere kennisgeving).
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Geplaatst 26 januari 2012 08:48 link naar dit bericht
Goedemorgen, AEX korte termijn, dag en uurgrafieken, een neutrale opening verwacht.
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Geplaatst 27 januari 2012 18:56 link naar dit bericht
AEX korte termijn, dag en uurgrafieken. Prettig weekeinde
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vgoossens
offlineLidGeplaatst 30 januari 2012 10:22 link naar dit berichtDe daling is begonnen, een slot onder de 1265 in de spx zet de verkoop sluizen verder open;
The threat of a hard landing in China subdued, it looks like a controlled soft landing. Air is also eroding from the real estate bubble, giving investors confidence we won’t see a sharp slowdown. Weaker European countries showed declining interest rates, inducing risk on investing in stocks and commodities. The ECB saved the day by using a big bazooka to offer basically limitless lending for 3 years at very attractive rates (1%) for the European banks. In the meanwhile politicians are still arguing what are the best solutions to solve the European debt problem without triggering a chain reaction and inducing a (hard) recession over the whole world. A positive sign is emerging that it will not only be austerity and fines, but also growth stimulation ideas in Europe. The big question is, is going Europe for the full Monty (ie more integration, fiscally and politically etc) or will it remain in dead lock by just words no action? Overall investors see it as promising, the glass is half full.
The US is seeing signs of life, macro numbers are improving. Inflation (food & energy specially) is on its way down, giving room for (monetary) stimuli measures around the world. The engine of Europe, Germany is doing ok, numbers are coming in slightly better than estimates.
Things are not as bad, as a lot of pessimists have proclaimed over the last couple of months.
Risks:
Greece and other weak countries aren’t going to pay up, risking a deep recession and dragging the world along with it if an adequate solution isn’t found
Resurrection of US debt problems
Upsides:
New plans for Quantative easing in Europe and USA (now inflation is under control)?
A real solution to stem the PIGS contagion, 1 Huge European Bond market(not likely at the moment), substantial increase of EFSF?
Outlook:
We are getting close to another Top of Tops meeting between European politicians, will this one be the real thing with real and detailed solutions? Regarding their track record, don’t expect lot’s of fireworks. The situation is very likely to be dragged on again, disappointing investors once again.
One way or another the Europeans are going to pay the bill for the Greek and maybe other bills as well. Banks will take haircuts, but the ECB has to go to the barber as well, the Greek simply can’t pay for the banquet they were having for the last 10 years or so. Contagion will be the key word for the months to come. Bank recapitulations will also be the story of the day, Unicredit saw it’s share price plummet to 10 year low’s to 2.28 on share issues. More banks will follow the coming months, asset sales will be at depressed prices. A rebound of bank stocks happened on banks lobbying for relaxed Basel terms.
We are going to see recession or near recession numbers for European countries, inducing further downgrades of numbers and company estimates. This will not be good for equity markets. At the moment markets are in a top forming process and I expect markets to head lower the coming month. Window dressing is nearly finished in the equity markets.
On a 5 to 10 year view we could see very sluggish growth for the developed countries (like the 70’s) and a more moderate growth for developing nations. Commodities can play a good hedge in this scenario. Social unrest in Europe is increasing, see the recent migration of unemployed in Spain for instance, other weak countries will show the same the coming months. Capital preservation remains the play in the markets. Growth, which growth? is out for the moment.
Strategy; I have sold holdings recently and covered part of my portfolio with futures and looking to hedge more.
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